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Although public demand is debatable Marcos Maidana will get a second opportunity to beat Floyd Mayweather Jr at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas once again on September 13th. Maidana did enough to convince the pound for pound champion that he needs to set the record straight and convincingly beat him after the Argentinian gave him one of the most gruelling fights of his career. Floyd did enough to win by a split decision on the score cards after also suffering a cut about his right eye thanks to some dirty tricks from the challenger. Many have come to the conclusion that the American will rely on his mobility to make the rematch easier.
But will it be that simple?
Let's look at a single fact. Mayweather is 37 and a half years old now, and while he looked great in running circles around Robert Guerrero at the beginning of last year Guerrero did not show enough passion to win, barely pressing the action after the midway point resulting in a landslide loss. Marcos Maidana is a different breed in that he will not stop trying to win from the opening bell even if he has to punch anywhere but the body and head, elbow and butt his opponent to do it. Aside from taking punches in the most lawful of places, being bruised up the way he was in their first fight can take some miles off the clock of a fighter, especially one that is approaching his 40's.
Unfortunately for Maidana what lets him down are his lack of technical skills. For most of his career he has let his power do the talking but it takes a lot more than that to defeat somebody like Floyd Mayweather! One of his bad habits is to smother his own work when getting his opponents on the ropes, not allowing himself to create room to land punches. This cost him in the tenth round of his 2010 fight against Amir Khan when he had the British speedster in trouble but he allowed him to recover because he hindered himself of a follow up by getting too close. It seems that Maidana has not grasped this and it is highly unlikely that he will in the rematch with Mayweather.
We all know that Mayweather is a gym rat and stamina has never been an issue and it should not be next month. But for Maidana, blowing early has seemingly always been an issue after throwing so many power punches, although he has recently made a statement saying that he intends to rectify this, saying that he plans to keep some in reserve for the later part of the fight. But will he be able to resist after making a career of knocking most of his opposition out? One cannot be sure.
What can be envisioned in all likelihood is that Mayweather comes away with another points win with the scorecards reflecting something like they did in the first fight with the exception that this time the judges unaninimously agree. Mayweather will keep to the centre of the ring for as long as possible disarming Maidana's plans of forcing Floyd to the ropes where he can rough him up. What is largely ignored is that Mayweather was comfortable enough to stay on the ropes throughout the first encounter. This says a lot considering that he normally changes tactics if the first answer he finds is not a solution. He was able to land the uppercut off the ropes but the straight right was even more effective when the two fighters came together in the centre. Mayweather surely has picked up on this.
And the less likely scenario?
If Maidana has his own way then he will throw his jab more and try to score with the over hand right while attempting to force Mayweather back, possibly snatching a split decision. This, of course, will only happen if Floyd gets old in the ring all of a sudden.
But is there a decent chance of that? Probably not yet.